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Event
British Hydrological Society South West and Wales event - 24 September 2025
Join the British Hydrological Society's relaunched South West & Wales Regional Group for its inaugural in-person gathering of practitioners, researchers and policymakers on Wednesday 24 September 2025, from 17:30 to 19:00 at the University of Bristol (Lecture Theatre 1.18, Queens Building 1st floor, University Walk, BS8 1TR, Clifton Campus).
The programme is as follows:
17:30 - 18:00 | Reception and networking (foyer outside lecture theatre)
18:00 - 18:10 | Introduction from committee
18:10 - 18:35 | Presentation by Dr Francesca Pianosi (University of Bristol)
18:35 - 19:00 | Presentation by Mr Benjamin Evans (Dwr Cymru Welsh Water)
There will be an opportunity to continue networking after the event at a local pub.
Thanks to the generous support of Dr Pianosis Science and Technology Facility Council grant who are sponsoring the event by providing drinks for the reception.
Please find the abstracts to the presentations below:
Dr Francesca Pianosi : Quantification and attribution of uncertainty in hydrological and water resource modelling
Computational modelling is increasingly used to inform water management decisions at different spatial and temporal scales, from the management of individual flood or drought events at specific locations to national-scale strategic planning of infrastructure investments.
Model outputs, however, are conditional on a range of uncertain assumptions and input data, reflecting our incomplete or imperfect knowledge of the drivers and the properties of the systems being modelled. When models are used for long-term planning, uncertainty about current system properties and drivers becomes compounded by deep (i.e. poorly characterised) uncertainty regarding how these factors will evolve in the future.
Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a methodology designed to investigate the propagation of uncertainties through mathematical models and to quantify the relative importance of different uncertainty sources on model outputs. GSA can be applied to a variety of tasks, from prioritising efforts for model improvement and conducting diagnostic evaluations to enhancing our understanding of future system behaviour under deep uncertainty.
Drawing on a range of recent examples from the hydrology and water-resources sector, this presentation will demonstrate how to better support both model developers and end users in conceptualising and designing GSA experiments, and will identify who, when, and why stakeholders can benefit most from these analyses.
Mr Benjamin Evans (Dwr Cymru Welsh Water): An Analysis of QUBE-Generated Inflows Under UKCP18 Climate Change Scenarios for Wales
As climate change intensifies and scrutiny from regulators and the public grows, it is increasingly important for water resource analysts to have access to accurate and reliable catchment flow data under a range of climate change scenarios.
Historically, deriving climate-adjusted inflows has been a complex and time-consuming process. However, QUBEs new climate change functionality now enables the development of climate-adjusted inflows with relative ease for any site across the UK.
In this presentation, I will explore how this enhanced functionality within QUBE compares to our current methods of assessing climate change at Welsh Water, and its implications for improving water resources modelling in Wales and the wider UK.
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LocationLecture Theatre (TBC), Queen's Building, University of Bristol (View)
Queen's Building, University Walk (Clifton Campus)
Bristol BS8 1TR
United Kingdom
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