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AACE Seattle Section November 14th, 2019 Dinner Meeting: Quantitative Risk Assessment: The Process, Expert Opinion Elicitation and their Cognitive Biases
Executive Inn
Seattle, WA
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TOPIC: Quantitative Risk Assessment: The Process, Expert Opinion Elicitation and their Cognitive Biases

SYNOPSIS: Accurate quantification of project risks is an important element of a successful risk management process. However, there are issues and challenges in evaluating risks which could negatively impact an effective risk assessment process. This presentation discusses a summary overview of risk quantification process and the structural, motivational and more importantly cognitive biases existing during expert opinion elicitations that can affect the risk quantification process results.

PRESENTER: Farshad Abedinisohi

Farshad earned his bachelors degree in Civil and Environmental Engineering and a masters degree in Geotechnical Engineering from Sharif University of Technology in Tehran/Iran.  He also earned a masters degree in Construction Engineering and Management (CEM) from Stanford University/Palo Alto.  In addition, he finished his PhD studies at the University of Maryland/ College Park in Risk Analysis. Farshad worked for a Washington DC based consulting firm, Saffron Systems, for 4 years working on projects from US Army Corps of Engineers, Panama Canal Authority, BC Hydro, and US Dam Safety and Coastal Protection. He worked for 2 years as a senior risk analyst for Spectra Energy (Enbridge) on natural gas and crude oil pipeline transmission mega projects ranging from $50M to $3.3B. Prior to joining Sound Transit, he was working as an advisor to Irans Petroleum vice minister in risk analysis of mega projects (on-shore and off-shore) and also the economic evaluation of the long-term contracts with International Oil Companies (IOCs). He currently works at Sound Transit as the Program Manager for Risk Engineering running the Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Assessment for more than 20 projects ranging from $50MM to $2B+.


Dear Members, our AACE Seattle Section is privileged to support Northwest Harvest.  In our November 14th, 2019 Dinner Meeting, please bring your canned goods.  This Food Drive would make a difference to an individual or family.  Thank you for your kindness and support, and more blessings to each one of you!

*** Please make every effort to sign-up for this meeting before 12:00 Noon on Friday, November 8th, so that proper number and choice of meals can be ordered. Your cooperation is greatly appreciated! Please also note that meal orders placed after noon on the Friday prior to the event cannot be guaranteed ***

Executive Inn by the Space Needle
200 Taylor Avenue N
Seattle, WA 98109
(this location is wheelchair accessible)

Our meeting times have moved up by half hour as requested by several of our members.
5:00pm - Social Hour
6:00pm - Dinner
6:45pm - Program

The member price for this event is $35.00 if you register before 12:00 Noon on the Friday immediately preceding the meeting; late registration is $40.00.
Non-members price is $42.00 before 12:00 Noon on the Friday immediately preceding the meeting, and $48.00 thereafter.  
For individuals who are just Attending (No Dinner) is $30.00.  

The registration for dinner will be closed Friday, Nov. 8th, at 5:00 pm. After 5pm on Friday general admission tickets will go on sale, no dinner will be provided for General Admission tickets.


Chile-Lime Seared Chicken Breast, Baked Salmon with a Citrus BBQ Sauce or Lemon Dill Crème Sauce, and Vegetarian (requires one week advance notice).

If you have specific dietary restrictions please contact us at aaceseattle@gmail.com so that we can accommodate you. The AACE Seattle Section will be rotating menu selections this program year; we are interested in obtaining your feedback!

The AACE Seattle Section must pay for all meals that are ordered. If you RSVP that you will attend, you are responsible for the bill of your meal. In addition, if you attend without an RSVP there is a possibility that your meal options will be limited from those listed above. If you would like to be added to the Seattle Section's mailing list to receive future notices about our meetings and events, please contact one of the presiding Officers or Directors.

Visit the AACE Seattle Section on our new website at www.aaceseattle.org

Anybody interested in budget control, claims management, cost engineering, cost estimating, earned value management, planning and scheduling, project control, project management, value engineering, or risk management in any industry is cordially invited.

AACE Seattle Section normally meets the 2nd Thursday of each month (with this month being the exception) from September through June (excluding December). Each meeting with a technical presentation qualifies for .25 Continuing Education Units (CEUs) towards your CCP/CEP/CFCC/DRMP/EVP/PSP recertification requirements.
Thursday Nov 14, 2019 5:00 PM - Thursday Nov 14, 2019 8:00 PM | $35.00 - $48.00


Executive Inn (View)
200 Taylor Avenue North
Seattle, WA 98109
United States



Minimum Age: 18
Non-Smoking: Yes!
Wheelchair Accessible: Yes!


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