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AACE Seattle Section September 8th, 2016 Meeting
Best Western Plus Executive Inn
Seattle, WA
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AACE Seattle Section September 8th, 2016 Meeting
Best Western Plus Executive Inn
200 Taylor Avenue N.
Seattle, WA

PRESENTATION: Enhanced Risk Based Estimates

Risk Based Estimate (RBE) goes beyond assessing project's risks by distilling raw results of the RBE workshops during "Risk Treatment Planning" phase of the project risk management cycle. The speaker will start with a short discussion about projects risks and their consequences.  Then we will take a short incursion into the recent findings of how humans mind behaves. The System 1 of thinking (workshop setting) and System 2 of thinking (risk treatment planning) are presented and correlated to the process of RBE. Then it will be present the main activities of the risk treatment planning when it acts as an extension of the RBE. Next it will be present the case study of the second largest single bore tunnel in the world that demonstrates the benefit of adopting of an enhanced RBE in the project management process. For the case study the speaker presents how a contractor may approach the risks: (1) risk averse or (2) risk taker. The presentation will conclude that adopting risk treatment planning into the RBE improves the projects performance by reducing the project uncertainties.

PRESENTER:  Ovidiu Cretu, Ph.D., PE

Mr. Ovidiu Cretu is employed by WSDOT since 1992 where he leads WSDOTs Cost and Schedule Risk Based Estimate since May, 2004. Ovidius line of work is directed toward better understanding of projects uncertainty and how to manage it. Ovidiu is a member of the NCHRP 19-11 Changing the Game: Innovative Solutions to Allocate Risk and Deliver Projects Successfully under Constrained Budget Conditions and of the FHWA team that directs the Development and Delivery of Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis Template needed for Cost Estimate Review Program. Ovidiu is a key member of the FHWA panel that oversees the development of Risk Based Estimate training course. Ovidiu is the developer of the Risk Based Estimate Self-modeling which allows WSDOT employees to run Monte Carlo Simulations in order to embed projects uncertainties in the estimating process.

*** Please make every effort to sign-up for this meeting before 12:00 Noon on Monday, September 5th, so that proper number and choice of meals can be ordered. Your cooperation is greatly appreciated! Please also note that meal orders placed after noon on Monday of the week of the event cannot be guaranteed ***

Best Western Plus Executive Inn
200 Taylor Avenue N
Seattle, WA 98109
(this location is wheelchair accessible)


Please note that our meeting times have moved up by half hour as requested by several of our members

5:00pm - Social Hour
6:00pm - Dinner
6:45pm - Program


The member price for this event is $32.00 if you register before 12:00 Noon on the Monday immediately preceding the meeting; late registration is $37.00.

Non-members price is $39.00 before 12:00 Noon on the Monday immediately preceding the meeting, and $45.00 thereafter.

Please note that registration will be closed Monday September 5th at 8:00 pm.

A very limited of first come first served meals will be available at the door.


Zaatar and Lemon Roasted Chicken Breast, or Curry roasted Prawns with Mango Chutney, or Vegetarian (requires one week advance notice)

If you have specific dietary restrictions please contact us at aaceseattle@gmail.com so that we can accommodate you. The AACE Seattle Section will be rotating menu selections this program year; we are interested in obtaining your feedback!


The AACE Seattle Section must pay for all meals that are ordered. If you RSVP that you will attend, you are responsible for the bill of your meal. In addition, if you attend without an RSVP there is a possibility that your meal options will be limited from those listed above. If you would like to be added to the Seattle Section's mailing list to receive future notices about our meetings and events, please contact one of the presiding Officers or Directors.

Visit the AACE Seattle Section on our new website at www.aaceseattle.org.

Anybody interested in budget control, claims management, cost engineering, cost estimating, earned value management, planning and scheduling, project control, project management, value engineering, or risk management in any industry is cordially invited.

AACE Seattle Section meets the 2nd Thursday of each month from September through May (excluding December). Each meeting with a technical presentation qualifies for .25 Continuing Education Units (CEUs) towards your CCP/CEP/CFCC/DRMP/EVP/PSP recertification requirements.
Thursday Sep 08, 2016 6:00 PM - Thursday Sep 08, 2016 8:00 PM | $32.00 - $45.00


Best Western Plus Executive Inn (View)
200 Taylor Avenue N
Seattle, WA 98109
United States



Non-Smoking: Yes!
Wheelchair Accessible: Yes!


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