AACE Seattle Section November 10th, 2011 Meeting
"MONTE CARLO RISK SIMULATION USING ORACLE PRIMAVERA RISK MANAGER"
*** PLEASE NOTE THE CHANGE IN OUR MEETING LOCATION TO THE BEST WESTERN PLUS EXECUTIVE INN ***
Modern software applications have greatly facilitated various functions of project management such as scheduling and cost estimating. Many of these processes, in fact, would be essentially impossible without the implementation of powerful software tools. Risk management is no exception. Monte Carlo modeling is a powerful mathematical risk management vehicle for analyzing and documenting complex risk impacts upon a project's schedule, resources, and cost. Using Oracle Primavera Risk Manager (formerly Pertmaster), Steve Wageman will walk the audience through a visual demonstration of modern quantitative risk management techniques. The emphasis during this presentation will not be on the software commands and user interface, per se, but instead it will focus on how Monte Carlo modeling and other mathematical risk analysis concepts can support project managers in achieving their schedule, resource, and cost expectations. Specific topics covered will include a brief introduction to probabilistic scheduling and resource costing, pre-analysis schedule review, Monte Carlo fundamentals, applying schedule, resource, and cost uncertainty to a project, task existence and existence probability, probabilistic branching, risk registers, risk correlation, and analysis output reports.
Steven W. Wageman, CCC PSP EVP, possesses over 30 years of general and project management experience, and is currently the Director of Education and Training Programs at MWH Program Management Central Services. He has consulted to many different organizations and industries across the United States including, for example, the Department of Energy, Boeing, and the US Army Corps of Engineers. Steve has specialized expertise in scheduling, cost estimating, earned value management, risk management, and training. He is a Certified Cost Consultant, Planning and Scheduling Professional, and Earned Value Professional through AACE International, a Project Management Professional through the Project Management Institute, and a Certified Technical Trainer Plus through CompTIA. He is also an Authorized Primavera Instructor with Oracle Corporation.
PLEASE NOTE OUR NEW MEETING LOCATION! Our new venue is Best Western Plus Executive Inn, 200 Taylor Avenue N, Seattle, WA 98109. This facility is wheelchair accessible.
Anybody interested in project controls, project management, cost estimating, scheduling, value engineering, budget control, and cost engineering in all industries are cordially invited.
AACE Seattle meets the 2nd Thursday of each month from September through May. Each section meeting with a technical presentation qualifies for .25 points toward your CCC/CCE/PSP/EVP/CEP/CFCC recertification continuing education requirement.
Best Western Plus Executive Inn (View)
200 Taylor Avenue N
Seattle, WA 98109
|Wheelchair Accessible: Yes!|